Blowin' In The Wind

Burger King apology to Hindus

Burger King has apologized for running an advertisement in Spain that offended the Hindus, reports The Times of India.

The print ad showed the Hindu goddess Lakshmi seated atop a meat sandwich and other foodstuff with a catchphrase, "A snack that's sacred", written in Spanish.

The ad can be seen in a report by ABC 7, which also interviewed a Hindu American Foundation spokesman, who protested against the ad.

Globalization hurting workers, says Pope

Pope Benedict XVI has called for a radical rethinking of the global economy, criticizing the growing gap between the rich and the poor. He wants the United Nations reformed to create "a true world authority" that will manage the economy for the common good.

He speaks about the "the damaging effects on the real economy of badly managed and largely speculative financial dealing, large-scale migration of peoples (and) the unregulated exploitation of the earth's resources".

Globalization in its current form is hurting workers and weakening social security, he says. Read the papal encyclical, Caritas In Veritate (Charity In Truth), where he upholds the rights to food and water and "a just wage" and calls for freedom of religion and the "ethical use of technology". He says:

Happy Fourth of July

And here's the transcript of President Barack Obama's Fourth of July speech taken from the White House website.

Singapore to lead in next big thing in education: Harvard prof

Probably Singapore or Sweden will be the first to embrace the next big thing in education, says a Harvard academic. And that is? Personal, individualized education through computers.

Howard Gardner of the Harvard Graduate School of Education writes about personal education on the Foreign Policy website:

With the global quest for long-term competitiveness assuming new urgency, education is on everyone’s front burner. Societies are looking for ways to make quantum leaps in the speed and efficiency of learning. So long as we insist on teaching all students the same subjects in the same way, progress will be incremental. But now for the first time it is possible to individualize education—to teach each person what he or she needs and wants to know in ways that are most comfortable and most efficient, producing a qualitative spurt in educational effectiveness.

According to the analysis of business expert Clayton Christensen, personalized education is likely to begin outside formal school through a combination of entrepreneurial vendors on the one hand and ambitious students and parents on the other. Once far more efficient and effective education has been modeled in homes and clubs, those schools, communities, and/or societies that have the ambition, the means, and the willingness to take risks will follow suit. I’d bet on Singapore or Sweden before wagering on U.S. public schools. I recall the words of Winston Churchill: “The American people always do the right thing, after they’ve tried every other alternative.”

Wherever and whenever personalized education takes hold, the resulting world will be very different. Many more individuals will be well-educated because they will have learned in ways that suit them best. Even more importantly, these individuals will want to keep learning as they grow older because they have tasted success and are motivated to continue. Let’s just hope we can keep up with the robots.

So there's still hope for old fogeys like me. I can hide behind my computer doing multidisciplinary research to write the next definitive history of rock'n'roll!

Don't miss the Next Big Thing series on the Foreign Policy website. It offers things to cheer about. The global downturn is shaking up old notions, say the writers.

Disease and downturn anticipated two years ago

The swine flu outbreak in the middle of the global economic downturn isn't exactly a bolt from the blue. Such a nightmare scenario was envisaged two years ago by the World Economic Forum, no less.

The World Economic Forum's 2007 Global Risk Report didn't categorically say such a disaster was bound to happen, but it looked at the possibility and concluded it would hurt globalization.

A Reuters report published by the Independent yesterday said:

In its 2007 report on global risks, the World Economic Forum imagined the consequences of a simultaneous pandemic and global liquidity crisis - a scenario that was purely speculative then but which now seems eerily prescient.

The result, it said, would be "a backlash against globalisation, which in turn compounds the hit on global demand".

I have since looked at the World Economic Forum's 2007 Global Risk Report and am struck by how it anticipated the current crisis. It mentioned the following possibilities (and I quote):

Chinese economic hard-landing: Chinese growth is both investment- and export-led. The expansion of exports may generate a backlash (particularly in the US); high
investment (over 40% of GDP) has generated excess capacity and fears of potential bad debts.

Fiscal crises caused by demographic shift: The deterioration of fiscal balances in G8 countries, combined with continuing large deficits in other large countries, renders a series of major fiscal crises possible, exacerbated by the long-term challenges of ageing and equitable healthcare provision.

Blow-up in asset prices/ excessive indebtedness: House prices have doubled in most mature markets (and in some emerging markets) in real terms over the last 10 years, putting price-to-income ratios at all-time highs. Many experts fear a major correction, with differential impacts on consumption, economic growth and other asset prices.

This was the official report of the World Economic Forum, the rich men's club which meets in Davos every year. In June 2007, there was also a World Economic Forum on East Asia held in Singapore where Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong spoke of the need for good government.

There had even been prior warnings of the coming downturn.

The then IMF chief Rodrigo de Rato cautioned at the IMF/World Bank conference in Singapore in September 2006: "The global growth cycle may be close to its peak."

So why did economic forecasts continue to be optimistic last year?

Even when Singapore officially went into recession in November last year, the Ministry of Trade and Industry was still forecasting the economy would grow by up to 2 percent or shrink by up to 1 percent this year. Now it expects the economy to shrink by 6 to 9 percent.

Singapore 10% GDP drop, 7.5% unemployment likely: IMF report

Singapore faces the sharpest recession and highest unemployment among major Asia-Pacific economies, according to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report.

Singapore's gross domestic product is expected to shrink 10 percent this year – more than any of its neighbours' - and a further 0.1 percent next year when others are expected to begin to recover.

Unemployment is expected to rise from 3.1 percent to 7.5 percent this year and 8.6 percent next year.

Consumer prices are expected to remain stable this year and go up by 1.1 percent next year.

The world economy is expected to contract 1.3 percent this year but grow 1.9 percent next year.

Here are the figures for the other Asia-Pacific economies. Unemployment figures are not available for all, but among those available, it is highest in Singapore.

All figures in percentages

Country	GDP growth 2009	GDP growth 2010	Unemployment 2009	Unemployment 2010
China	6.5	7.5
Japan	-6.2	0.5	4.6	5.6
India	4.5	5.6
Hong Kong	-4.5	0.5	6.3	7.5
Singapore	-10	-0.1	7.5	8.6
Malaysia	-3.5	1.3
Thailand	-3	1
Indonesia	2.5	3.5
Philippines	0	1
Taiwan	-7.5	0	6.3	6.1
South Korea	-4	1.5	3.8	3.6
Australia	-1.4	0.6	6.8	7.8
New Zealand	-2	0.5	6.5	7.5

Here are charts with more data from the  IMF report which can be downloaded as a PDF file.

 

 
The IMF report says:

Gordon Brown and his opposite number in Bangkok

This picture showing Chinese President Hu Jintao seated next to Gordon Brown and the Queen during the G20 summit was taken as evidence of China's growing clout. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is seated next to Hu. See the similarity? A king and a queen flanking two leaders who weren't popularly elected to office.

I was struck by the fact while reading an Economist article critical of the Thai Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva:

He rode to office, unelected, thanks to the yellow shirts… Mr Abhisit lacks both influence and legitimacy. To earn both, he will need to face the voters.

But Gordon Brown wasn't elected prime minister by the people either. Yet no one questions his legitimacy.

Why? Because it's not the people who choose the prime minister in Britain. They only elect members of parliament. The MP with a majority in the House of Commons is then invited by the queen to form the government – and becomes the prime minister.

That was how Abhisit became prime minister too. The difference is Brown came to power peacefully, Abhisit didn't. The Thai Supreme Court banned the ruling coalition parties before he came to power.

Brown, on the other hand, had a smooth succession from Tony Blair as leader of the ruling Labour Party. That may have something to do with tradition.

Brown isn't the first British prime minister to occupy 10 Downing Street without a battle of the ballot.

Winston Churchill also came to power without winning a general election. He took over when Neville Chamberlain stepped down in 1940, a year after World War II broke out. Churchill lost the post-war election in 1945.

Alec Douglas-Home met the same fate. He was prime minister only for a year. He took over when Harold Macmillan resigned because of illness in 1963  – and lost the subsequent election in 1964.

Brown, who took over from Tony Blair in June 2007, has been prime minister for nearly two years. He has to face the voters by next year because the last general election was held in May 2005.

Obama's Chief Technology Officer

President Barack Obama's new Chief Technology Officer Aneesh Chopra has his work cut out. The White House announcement today says:

As Chief Technology Officer, Chopra will promote technological innovation to help the country meet its goals from job creation, to reducing health care costs, to protecting the homeland.  Together with Chief Information Officer Vivek Kundra, they will help give all Americans a government that is effective, efficient, and transparent.

"The goal is to give all Americans a voice in their government and ensure that they know exactly how we are spending their money -- and can hold us accountable for the results," Obama said.

Jason Kincaid on TechCrunch says:

The choice comes after months of speculation, during which many of Silicon Valley’s most prominent figures, including Steve Ballmer, Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Eric Schmidt (among many others) were named as possible candidates. Whether or not some of these people actually wanted the position is another story, but obviously President Obama chose a different route.

Chopra is currently Virginia’s Secretary of Technology. TechPresident says in early 2007 under Chopra's leadership, Virginia was one of the first states to move, with Google's help, to make its state websites more searchable and thus more accessible to ordinary citizens. The state has also been in the forefront of efforts to create robust web services tracking the giant government stimulus spending package enacted by Obama. Vivek Kundra, Obama's Chief Information Officer, who also came out of Virginia, it adds.

Virginia has started using tools and applications like iTunes and Ning in education and healthcare, writes Tim O'Reilly on O'Reilly Radar. He explains Why Aneesh Chopra is a great choice for Federal CTO and quotes a background paper to highlight the different roles of Chief Information Officer Vivek Kundra and Chief Technology Officer Aneesh Chopra:

The responsibilities of the CIO are to use information technology to transform the ways in which the government does business. The CTO will develop national strategies for using advanced technologies to transform our economy and our society, such as fostering private sector innovation, reducing administrative costs and medical errors using health IT, and using technology to change the way teachers teach and students learn.

Two more Indian Americans join Obama administration, says the Indian website Rediff. It reports:

Thai protesters wanted to meet PM Lee: Bernama

Singapore's Straits Times did a great job liveblogging from Pattaya about the Asean summit which broke down today after anti-government protesters stormed the convention centre.

But the Malaysian media had more to say about the leaders.

Bernama reported yesterday:

A group of eight demonstrators broke through the security cordon at the venue of the 14th Asean summit in an attempt to hand over a petition to demand the ouster of Thai prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

They demanded to see a representative from a foreign delegation to hand over the petition.

Initial indications are that they asked for Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who is the Deputy Chair of Asean.

The demonstrators eventually handed over a stack of the petition to P.Balakumar of the Asean secretariat and asked him to distribute it to the leaders attending the summit…

The Malaysian media were also quick to report today their prime minister was safe.

The Star reported:

Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak and his entourage were safe throughout, The Star's Mergawati Zulfakar reported. He left for home at about 6pm Malaysian time and arrived at the Royal Malaysian Air Force base in Subang at about 7.30pm.

Before he left, he told the Malaysian media that the summit had had an "unexpected ending" but he was not among those to be evacuated out by helicopter to the nearby U-Tapao airport.

“I will not go take the helicopter but the normal way. The leaders can choose various ways but I choose the normal way,” he said.

Anyone following the news knows all the leaders have left Pattaya. The state of emergency has been lifted in Pattaya following their departure, reports the Bangkok Post.

But the only online news about the Singapore delegation I have seen so far is from blogger Ephraim Loy, who posted at 5.16pm: (Foreign Minister) George Yeo flying home by RSAF plane soon. Thanks for everyone's good wishes.

AFP reported:

Abhisit -- the number-one target of the demonstrators -- was the first to fly out of town, whisked away to the Vietnam War-era U-Tapao military airfield near Pattaya.

The leaders of the Philippines, Myanmar and Vietnam followed by chopper to the airstrip, where planes were on standby to take them home. Other leaders left by road but all were evacuated within hours of the ruckus.

Won't Get Fooled Again: Just right for G20

The G20 summit in London last week reminded me of this song by The Who – Won't Get Fooled Again. The summit communique promised to tighten financial regulations so people don't fooled again and the world is saved from another economic collapse like the one we are witnessing now. The summit also issued an explanatory guide.

But it's best to take such resolutions with a grain of salt. For lightning never strikes twice in the same place. This time it was the subprime crisis that brought the global economy down. Earlier there was the dotcom bubble, which burst in March 2000 when the NASDAQ collapsed, and before that the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Who knows what will cause the next crash?

The Who's Won't Get Fooled Again has a healthy dose of scepticism. (The lyrics are at the end of this post.)

Incidentally, the Who -- much older -- performed Won't Get Fooled Again at the Live 8 concert in July 2005 to mark the G8 summit To Make Poverty History. It didn't.

A good read that recaptures that era is Ian Rankin's Inspector Rebus mystery, The Naming Of The Dead.

But there is another reason why this song seems so appropriate to the times.

Won't Get Fooled Again appeared on the album, Who's Next, in 1971, according to Wikipedia.

1971 – that was a watershed year.

It was not just the year of the Bangladesh War.

1971 also saw a fundamental change in the international monetary system. It was more radical than what the G20 promised or delivered.

China now wants the dollar to be replaced by a new global reserve currency.

Something just as big happened in 1971. It involved the dollar and the gold – and President Richard Nixon.

Nixon is now remembered for the Watergate scandal and ping-pong diplomacy bringing together America and China.

He also changed the Bretton Woods international monetary system. See the post below.

Now back to the song and it's lyrics…